The Secret Lair

As part of our training curriculum for minions learning the fine art of extracting information, we adopted the use of the ten questions made famous first by Bernard Pivot, then by James Lipton on Inside the Actor’s Studio. 

Today we bring you a transcript of Minion #15367′s training session.

File #0001: Comrade Cockroach

Пойдите In your tongue, is “go.” The Cockroach is man of action, you know? Go, go, go, you know? I do not sit around and wait. No good at a being couch potato. If there were sitting contest, The Cockroach would lose. To anyone. Is true! I go. I hear word, I go.

I have friend, Major Ursa. Is bear of a man, yes? I mean, is bear, is man, splat! Combined. Bear-man, you know? And he, he is excellent fighter, excellent soldier. But does not go. Does not go. Was always with book, with newspaper, with television. When word came, would go, but not fast. Would prefer to stay, to read.

Ursa sells the real estate, now. Is good fit. Always loved houses, Major Ursa did.

You may have guessed, eh? Is “wait.” I have friends, good friends, who wait, who plan. Dr. Mercury, you know her? She plans. She will wait for right moment. She can wait the way I will not. Cannot.

To me, to wait, is death. No, is worse than death. Is death without the ending, the stop. Is death without grace.

What turns you on?

This is going to sound all bragging, but is not. Is true. The Cockroach likes a sturdy woman, you know? Not a fragile girl. Is not bragging! Is not! Has nothing to do with bedroom. That something…that something else.

The Cockroach leads a life, well, is hard, this life. Is not for all women. I realize this. Is bloody, is bloody on hands. Fragile girls, they…it varies, you know? But in end, there is always the running and the screaming. It does not matter how you begin, if there are lies, or truths or nothing. Even if we begin in silence, once the blood is seen, the end is clear.

Too clear.

Women who cannot handle…well, I do not handle them, is all. Sturdy women. That is what I like. Yes.

What turns you off?

If I to be honest, is name. “Comrade Cockroach.” Sound silly, now. When I used it the first of times, was cool. So I thought. But now? Is no cool. Is silly.

Is why I tell the women “Call me Lenin.” Is name, is good name, To hear “Comrade Cockroach” in the rough and the tumble of the bedroom, is no good. Not for, you know, performance. No good.

When you kill a man with a knife, there is noise–I do not expect you to know this, you are blameless, but there is noise. It is soft noise, so soft, no much more than a gasp. But is gasp cut short, you know? Severed. Quick. Were I a faith-fearing man, I would say sound is soul escaping from body, flying up to final reward. But I have seen too much. I know what sound is, truly. Sound is victim about to protest that his life is going, but it is gone before he can say one word.

Is beautiful, this noise.

You miss this sound with gun. There is too much…with the bang-bang, you are, you know, distracted. But when you are close, and there is only the silence of knives, and this sound, this is all you hear.

After Vanguard Program decide it no longer want the Cockroach, they turn to new project. This new project is not like me, is not special man. Is special suit. Suit is all metal, is armor, you know? Flies around on the jet boots, vroooooom. Is called C.O.S.S.A.C.K.¹ Vanguard Program, they love C.O.S.S.A.C.K. It man in suit. Man dies, then new man wears suit. Who knows? Not Russian people. They love C.O.S.S.A.C.K. Do they know is never same man in suit? No. Do they care? No.

You think, with all this love, this attention, C.O.S.S.A.C.K. has done something great. No. Is no true. C.O.S.S.A.C.K. has killed Bold Eagle as many time as the Cockroach has. Which is zero. But who gets parades, toys, show on the television? Is not the Cockroach.

I hate the theme song to the C.O.S.S.A.C.K. show on the television. Is played everywhere. Is stupid song for stupid suit.

Curses for men who do not know discipline. Words…words  worth so much, you know? Words are for heart. Curses, curses are not for heart. Curses come from belly. Men who do not know discipline, they speak from belly. Belly leads them through life.

Is not so with the Cockroach. The Cockroach only speaks from heart

There is show, on the television. Is about man, in blue box? Goes around with the vroop vroop, yes? Always fighting the monsters in the time and the space?

What is that job? Because the Cockroach would like to have it.

Seliing the real estate. Is no for me. I have seen, seen it done. Is no for me.

Heaven does not exist. This, I know. But, we will play your little game. If Heaven exists. Okay. If Heaven exists.

If Heaven exists…it would not matter. I would not see it. To go to heaven, one must die, yes? That is requirement? Die, go to Heaven. Well, then. There is your answer. One must die to go to Heaven. And the Cockroach does not die.

Session Notes

Comrade Cockroach is the creation of Jared Axelrod. 

Jared  is an author, an illustrator, a graphic designer, a sculptor, a costume designer, a podcaster and quite a few other things that he’s lost track of but will no doubt remember when the situation calls for it.

He is a founding member of the daily flash-fiction website 365 TOMORROWS, and the writer and producer of two science-fiction podcasts, “The Voice Of Free Planet X” and the serial “Aliens You Will Meet.

He is not domestic, he is a luxury, and in that sense, necessary.

Learn more about him at jaredaxelrod.com, and listen to his most recent work, Fables of the Flying City at fablesoftheflyingcity.com.

1. Cybernetic Operating System for Surveillance, Aerial Combat and Killing [↩]

It’s Monday. Who wants to work? Have fun captioning this photo instead.

So here we are at last.

The final installment of building a raygun. I hope you’ve followed along, since by the shrieks coming from the Minister Lyn’s area you will probably need them sooner rather than later.

Last installment I talked about cycling LED lights that I picked up at JoAnn Fabrics. I posted an image, but it was a poor substitute for the actual versions of what I bought. After a bit of searching, I found the original packaging.

The round ones, I used whole in the power pack area. Every time you turn one of these on, it lights differently. It can light solid blue, green, or red, a a combination of two colors, or cycling between all three. For my purposes, I like the cycling version since it draws the eye. If you are being pursued by the Shetland-benobos though, you may want to set it to just one color.

The flat ones, I took apart. For this you’ll need a small flat head screwdriver or a very very small pry-bar. Make sure to save the enclosure and battery, since we’ll use those later. The LEDs from these are used in the back of the pistol, and you could use them in the slot at the top of the pistol if you wanted to. I actually ended up using a large bright blue LED, since my gun was flashing enough already.

At this point, you will want to paint the two halves of your pistol body. After this, you’ll have gewgaws and clear pieces of plexi that you don’t want painted. So primer the two halves with black. Wait. Then when it’s dry, paint over with the steampunk or dieselpunk color of your choice. I preferred a beaten brass look for my pistol.

Now, go ahead and take apart two of the flat BrightSPOT LED lights. Why two? Glad you asked. I lied to you earlier when I said I only needed on set of twisted pair wires going to the gun. I actually used both. One set is used for the light on the back of the gun, and the other for the LED to light up the plexiglass slot. Also, you’ll need the coin cell batteries that are in the two light enclosures.

Unfortunately, I don’t have any images of the wiring or inside of the raygun. Things were moving along so quickly that I forgot to take pictures of the build. So let me point out the bigger points of the build using the finished pictures.

First, the blue power stripe. This was achieved by removing the slide from the original Nerf Maverick. Where the rod that pulls back the spring would normally go there is a slot. I cut a piece of plexiglass down to size, and sanded the edges so that the light would diffract and scatter nicely. I also drilled a hole into the plexi so that the LED would fit inside it. I also sanded down the LED sides so that the light would spread through the plexi sheet.

Eventually, you will want to glue the sheet in place, but don’t do it until you are ready to put the pistol back together again. This is the time to wire it up and test your connections though. I would suggest soldering the wires for stability, though I didn’t in the interest of time. I used the Loctite glue on things here, since it doesn’t frost the plexi when it dries like superglue would.

In the image, you can see a green light at the back of the pistol. This is the rainbow LED from the brightSPOT, inserted into the jewelry piece I had purchased. Also in that piece is a slip of tracing paper to diffuse the light and make it look as if the light was filling the tube.

If you notice, there are wires that extend from the ends of the lighted tube and onto a brass knob. There is an identical setup on the other side. These are actually what carries current to the LED. Since it’s just battery power, no worries about getting electrocuted. I did this intentionally in case I wanted to attach more lights or other powered devices to the outside of the pistol.

In the shot of the back, you also have a good view of how the connector for the tubing goes into the back of the pistol. When you hold it, the tubing loops over the back of your hand and then snakes around your arm and into the powerpack at your belt. It’s quite a menacing look, I recommend going with it, even though it does add a bit of bulk. You could after all, make the pistol smaller by enclosing the batteries in the body of the pistol, but you won’t. Why? *zap! sizzle! fwoosh!* Because, this is steampunk, not Flash Gordon!

You probably want to see the power pack in action as well. Very well. Here is a shot of it. No video, so you only see the one color. Trust me when I say that the cycling colors make it look even better. You can see wire shadows in it currently, since I didn’t tuck them away for this shot. Normally, you’ll only see the color diffused throughout the whole cylinder.

So, you’ve got your electrical wired up, and tested. You did test it, right?

Oh dear, and those Shetland-benobos are sounding even louder. Ok, take it apart and test it again. Make sure all of your connections are solid. You don’t want your pistol flickering, or worse, not working when you need it, do you?

Screw the pistol together, and test the wiring again. It’s so easy for things to come loose at this stage. Once you know that your wires are good and stable, it’s time to break out the epoxy.

This part, you’ll want to have some extra bits of cardboard, paper, and other things that can be used to support the pistol. The stuff is pretty potent, so do this outdoors or in a well ventilated area where you can leave the pistol to dry. Ideally, I would have liked to construct an insert that would have fit with the Maveric and would socket to the ball of the plasma ball. I didn’t have time to sculpt and mold it though. So my version, if you look close enough, can be considered a bit messy. If you are that close though, chances are the barrel is up your nose and you aren’t long for this world. So it’s kind of a moot point.

Once the epoxy is dry, you can continue on to adding any other gewgaws or bits to your pistol. It’s nearly complete! A quick ink wash would make things look even nicer if you have the time and patience.

For the holsters, I ended up buying drill holsters from the local hardware store. They are made to fit extra wide things, so they fit perfectly. I don’t quite like the initials, or the more modern fabric, but you do what you can when on a budget.

I also got a plain, wide, leather utility belt to hold the two holsters and strapped the power packs onto it. Overall, it makes a nice rig. You really only need one pistol, since they pack quite the punch, but if you have the means, making two takes only a little bit longer for each step if you make them in tandem.

If anyone would like to donate to the Lair, and acquire one or both of these pistols, feel free to contact us. If there is interest, I would be willing to make more on commission, for the right price.

According to the column rotation calendar which is taped to my monitor, today I am supposed to have a new column for you.

I have failed you. I would be sorry, but let me offer a most excellent media experience in trade. Instead of gracing the world with my peculiar mix of humor and geekly ennui, let me introduce you to Professor Elemental‘s song, Fighting Trousers.

Last installment, we worked on the barrel of the pistols. You may have gotten impatient, painting the barrel already. That is OK, it shows initiative, make sure you are able to give the rest of the raygun similar attention.

The grip of the gun is next. This is where we really get to destroy things and rebuild them better than they were before.

Take the Nerf Maverick pistol that we’re going to use as the grip of the raygun, and your favorite dremel tool or hacksaw. The hacksaw was my favorite for this, since it didn’t melt the plastic and gave me nice clean cuts. The cuts should be made Just forward of the main body of the pistol, and just behind the cylinder. If you are patient, you might want to cut all of the rest flush.

You might want to save the other bits for later projects of your own. Now you can take the rest of the pistol apart. I didn’t use the slide on the back of the pistol, so we can put it and the springs it has off to the side.

You should have something that looks kind of like this.

Now take apart the two halves of the but of the gun. I took out all but the trigger springs out of this one so the trigger will still appear to work.

The real reason however is the electronics that need to go in here.

Inside the gun there is an LED that will light up a piece of plexiglass, and some more wires that will connect to lights on the outside of the pistol.

Also, as you can see in the opened up image of the pistol, there is one of our plumbing connectors. You will need to cut a hole, I used a Dremel and a knife, that will allow the threaded portion of the connector to sit inside the grip of the pistol.

This will allow us to attach our conduit to the pistol, which both appears and actually gives power to the gun. Unfortunately, I don’t have an image of the hole as it is cut, but you can see the result in the images of the connected conduit.

We won’t attach it now, but to show you where we are going here is an image of the grip and barrel mated together.

If I were to make this again, I would mold a mating ring that would more seamlessly attach the barrel and grip. As it is, it looks decent enough.

Next time, we’ll start wiring together the electronics and attaching the gewgaws that will make your ray gun look more interesting and distinctive.

WARNING: Slightly Steampunk

So last time, in Building a Raygun, we assembled some components to build our raygun. This week, we’ll assemble the barrel of the pistol.

So from our parts list of last week, you’ll need the following.

• 1 – Handheld, battery powered, plasma globe
• 1 – set of cheap plastic venetian blinds
• Loctite No Mess Adhesive
• Masking tape or painter’s tape
• 1 – hole punch – 1/8″ or 1/4″ size, depending on how big you like your rivets

The plasma globe is the core of our barrel for this build. It’s handhold is a great shape for the barrel of our brass or iron (your choice) raygun.

It’s lines are too sleek and machined to make a really good steampunk or dieselpunk weapon however. We need to break those up, and add some gew gaws to make it more interesting.

So here is what it looks like out of the box. I bought two of these, since it was only going to be a little more effort to make a pair than to just make one.

Once you have the plasma ball unpacked, now it’s time to get out the venetian blinds. I had a broken set laying around that I kept for the plastic, but they were $5.00 originally, so not a big cost there.

The plastic in the blinds is supple and fairly thin, which makes it great for modeling and other uses such as this. The curve of it however, doesn’t always work for us. For this use though, it’s perfect.

So, cut a strip of blind so that you have multiple strips that are just about the length of the handgrip. Using scissors is going to be easier than a knife, because of the curved shape. Round the edges slightly, so they look rougher, more hand shaped and machined. You’ll need a fair amount of these, so you will need at least two slats from the blinds.

At this point, dry fit them around the handle, see how things line up. If your globe is like mine, the power switch is on the side of the handle. You will want to use a knife or hole punch to make a hole for the switch. I also used this piece as the first glued piece.

After your dry fit, it’s time for the No Mess Adhesive. I won’t tell you how to apply glue, hopefully you can do that. If not, then you’ll need to report to Minion Reclamation for… training.

Glue the power switch plate on first, making sure not to get glue into the switch. Then with a slight overlap, lay down the next one. When I did this, I put on about three at a time before I needed to stop and secure them. I used velcro bands to do this, but you can also use tape.

Allow these to dry for a while. I waited overnight, since I wasn’t in a hurry. If you are currently under alien or robot attack, you can go faster. If it’s zombies, then you have the time to wait and do it right. After you are done it should look something like this image.

Gew Gaws and Rivets

So it looks pretty cool now, but it’s missing something. Bits and bobs! Gew gaws! Rivets! Now is the time to rummage through junk drawers, bits boxes, and even old pens from your desk.

Get all sorts of bits that you can find, and while you think about them start punching out rivets. To do this, I had a 1/8″ hole punch and took the same plastic slats from earlier, and punched out circles. A lot of them. Once that was done, I started gluing them on places where it looked natural where the rivets would go.

At this time, you can also check how well the plates were glued down. If there are gaps like mine had, you can use a toothpick to apply some more adhesive and secure it again until dry.

If you look at the end of the globe closely, you can see that there is something sticking 0ut of the end that wasn’t there before. That’s actually a pen cap, but you should call it an Ionic Concentrator. It just sounds better when you explain it.

Feel free to add fins, veins, piping, whatever looks cool to you, to add to the barrel. Save some of those bits that don’t seem to fit, since you will be doing similar things to the main body of the gun.

When you add things to the barrel end of the gun though, take care you don’t glue or weld the battery door shut. You’ll always want to make sure you have fresh batteries with which to fire.

Now as tempting as it is to start painting, wait. Ok, don’t, I didn’t. Make sure you have the ball itself well taped so paint doesn’t get on it, and start with a coat of black primer.

Once that’s done and dry, you can pick your color(s) and go for it. One thing to keep in mind. You will want the rest of the pistol to look like part of the same gun, so make sure you have enough of the same paint, and that you paint all the parts in a similar fashion.

If you don’t think you can do this, then wait until closer to the end before painting. Though you can still do the black primer now, since you’ll need it anyway.

I’m not going to show you my paint job yet, since that would ruin some of the surprise of the later parts. For now, you have enough to do for a week. So get to it!

If you’ve followed along, I want comments and pictures.

Next week, the main body of the raygun. So get out that hacksaw or Dremel multitool.

WARNING: Slightly Steampunk

For those minions unable to attend the training session due to being stationed outside of the Lair on assignment, this assembly manual will allow you to assemble your own sidearm as the minions in the Lair now possess.

The instructions are fairly lengthy, so this series will be spread out over several postings. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments sections. These questions will not go against your record… not at all.

For those more adept or ambitious minions, you are free to modify the instructions to customize your own raygun. However, it must meet the minimum Lair standards outlined in the minion handbook, section 17.7.

The parts list:

1 – Nerf Maverick pistol

1 – Handheld, battery powered, plasma globe

1 – set of cheap plastic venetian blinds

Loctite No Mess Adhesive

Epoxy for bonding plastic

Masking tape or painter’s tape

Scrap plexiglass

Color changing LEDs

Wire – since we had extra, the reference rayguns used cat5e, but any wire that will carry battery power will suffice.

Various tools for cutting and dealing with screws

1 – hole punch – 1/8″ or 1/4″ size, depending on how big you like your rivets

2 -Water line couplings

1 – Braided steel water line – 48″ was the length we used

1 – cool, power pack, looking device to clip on the belt

Various bits and bobs for added intimidation

Examples of the materials used are here:

Next week, we will start to assemble the barrel of the pistol.

CC BY-NC-ND image from Arthaey via Flickr

Last week, I took a look at the WHO’s announcement classifying radiofrequency electromagnetic fields, such as those emitted by mobile phones, as being possibly carcinogenic to humans, and dubbed it a bad call. Their decision was announced via a press release, which stated that an article would go live “in a few days” on The Lancet Oncology website that would give a concise report of their findings. This has yet to surface at the time of this writing, which is incredibly disappointing – engaging a sensationalist and fear-loving media with an international health policy statement without disclosing the specific evidence-based thought process behind it is poor planning at best, and at worst, implies that the thought process behind it may be suspect.

This leaves us with only the press release to work with, which notes that the decision was based on an extensive literature review. That said, the release contains only a single piece of hard data from one paper: a statistic from the INTERPHONE study which stated that there was a “40% increased risk for gliomas in the highest category of heavy users (reported average: 30 minutes per day over a 10‐year period)”. That seems pretty impressive and dramatic, as I’m sure the author of the press release intended it to be.

It’s also wrong.

It turns out that the correct way to portray the finding the release is referencing is actually a bit confusing, and somewhat unclear from the INTERPHONE data. It’s also interesting to note that most media and blogs reported INTERPHONE to show no correlation overall between mobile phone use and brain cancer. How, then, are we to reconcile that with the above statistic? It turns out INTERPHONE did show an overall correlation of tumors with phone use – a negative one. They found a reduced risk for gliomas in people who had ever used a mobile phone overall, including a reduced risk for gliomas in the second highest category of heavy phone users. Yet, we don’t see anyone making the claim that moderate mobile phone use is somehow protective against brain cancer.

There are several reasons for these confusing results. Firstly, there is no plausible way that radiofrequency electromagentic fields could cause cancer in the first place, so one would an expect a study examining this question to give unclear results at best. Also, INTERPHONE has several sources of error and bias that the authors of the study discuss in detail, and as such caution that these “limit the strength of the conclusions we can draw from these analyses and prevent a causal interpretation”. As such, INTERPHONE provides an excellent lesson in evidence-based medicine, as well as the truth behind the Mark Twain-popularized truism, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

What is the INTERPHONE study? INTERPHONE is the largest case control study every done looking at mobile phone use and brain tumors. It was conducted from 2000 through 2004 in 13 countries¹: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The study focused on two specific types of brain tumors – gliomas² and meningiomas³. Patients diagnosed with either of these tumors during the study period were interviewed in detail about their prior mobile phone use habits, as well as other possible exposures to radiation. This is a case-control study, meaning that a control group was created by “matching” at least one cancer-free person to each cancer patient based on having otherwise similar demographics⁴. Overall, 2425 persons with meningiomas, 2765 persons with gilomas, and 7658 controls were included.

What does it show? The survey data from the study participants was analyzed to see if there was any correlation between having either a meningioma or glioma and different parameters of mobile phone use – such as number of years using a mobile phone, or total amount of calls made during one’s lifetime – as well as the anatomic location of the tumor. A statistic called an Odds Ratio (OR) was calculated for each comparison, which is standard for a case control study. An OR compares the odds of one thing divided by the odds of another; in this case, the odds of having a brain tumor if one has ever used a mobile phone divided by the odds of having a brain tumor if one has never used a mobile phone.

An OR of 1.0 means that there is no difference between the two groups, whereas an OR above 1.0 would represent an increased risk for a tumor, and an OR of less than 1.0 shows a decreased risk. However, it is important to note that the OR gives a ratio of the odds that a thing will happen, and does not give a direct percentage chance of increased or decreased risk. To determine that, one would need to use a different statistical technique than is used in case control studies, such as the Relative Risk.

In INTERPHONE, the overall OR’s for a meningioma and glioma being associated with using a mobile phone for greater than one year were 0.79 and 0.81 respectively. This means that the odds of having a brain tumor if one has ever used a mobile phone for more than a year were actually less than the odds of having a brain tumor if one had not used a mobile phone. The authors then broke down the patients into ten subgroups based on number of hours spent on the phone, and found that the vast majority of OR’s were less than 1.0, again showing a decreased risk. In fact, the ninth (second highest) category for cumulative call time showed the lowest OR’s in this breakdown – 0.71 for gliomas and 0.76 for meningiomas. The tenth, or highest cumulative call time, category is the one that showed showed elevated OR’s of 1.15 for meningiomas and 1.4 for gilomas.

This latter OR of 1.40 is where the press release is getting the 40% increase statistic, or so it seems. If that is the case, this is an incorrect reporting of the Odds Ratio, as 1.4 does not mean a 40% increase⁵. This is a common error that is made when reporting on OR’s, because they are often confused with the other statistic mentioned above – the Relative Risk. If a Relative Risk was calculated to be 1.4, then it would be correct to say that there would be a 40% increased risk, because Relative Risk directly compares two probabilities, not two sets of odds.

So what is the the direct percentage increased risk of gilomas in that group, or any of the groups for that matter? Simply put, the data needed to calculate that is not in the INTERPHONE paper.

In addition to the above, the investigators further broke the data down to see if there was a relationship between tumor location in the brain with amount of phone use. Again, they found reduced OR’s overall and in most categories, although OR’s above 1.0 were seen in the highest use category both for tumors being on the same side of the head as phone use and in the temporal lobe of the brain.

What are the strengths? INTERPHONE managed to include large numbers of patients with meningiomas and gliomas. They focused on younger patients in the age range of 30-59 years old, as these were most likely to have used mobile phones over the prior 5-10 years. They also focused on urban areas, which also have the longest and greatest amount of mobile phone usage.

What are the weaknesses? The authors discussed a large number of possible sources of bias in the study itself. Many patients diagnosed with brain tumors and asked to participate in the study refused for a number of reasons; only 64% of glioma patients they identified agreed to participate, for instance. Being unable to include one third of glioma patients in the study could easily have impacted any associations seen. Not every established confounding factor was controlled for – for example, higher socio-economic status has been implicated by other studies as being a associated with an increased risk of brain cancer, but INTERPHONE did not record participant economic status in a rigorous way. Also, the timing and nature of the interviews of participants was variable.

It was further noted that the glioma group had a greater amount of potential sources of bias, especially for those in the higher use category for mobile phones. That group had a higher proportion of someone responding to the survey on behalf of the patient instead of the patients themselves, which could have led to greater inaccuracies. Also, that group had a much greater amount of missing data from the interviews, for which a “best guess” was made by the investigators and plugged into the calculations. Also at play is the normal human condition of recall bias and subjective memory, especially in the context of being asked detailed questions about things that happened several years prior. It is also worth noting that depending on its location and the clinical circumstances, a brain tumor and the treatment thereof might interfere with memory and the interview process.

What conclusions can we draw from it? Given the amount of potential error and bias involved, there are very few definite conclusions to be had. None of the OR’s were very low or very high, and their distribution is clearly confusing. Certainly there’s no reason to suspect that mobile phones somehow reduce the risk of gliomas or other brain cancer, just as there’s no plausible reason that the radiation they emit should cause brain cancer in the first place.

The one obvious conclusion is that there was no strong correlation between mobile phone use and brain cancer seen in the study. Even with the methodological issues involved, a strong correlation between phones and cancer should have been seen if it was there, and it was not. The authors themselves said it best:

An exhaustive analysis of this large data set involved estimation of hundreds of ORs; rather than focus on the most extreme values, the interpretation should rest on the overall balance of evidence. The null hypothesis of no association would be expected to produce an approximately symmetric pattern of negative and positive log ORs. A skewed distribution could be due to a bias or to a true effect. Our results include not only a disproportionately high number of ORs <1, but also a small number of elevated ORs. This could be taken to indicate an underlying lack of association with mobile phone use, systematic bias from one or more sources, a few random but essentially meaningless increased ORs, or a small effect detectable only in a subset of the data.

Overall, no increase in risk of either glioma or meningioma was observed in association with use of mobile phones. There were suggestions of an increased risk of glioma, and much less so meningioma, at the highest exposure levels, for ipsilateral exposures and, for glioma, for tumours in the temporal lobe. However, biases and errors limit the strength of the conclusions we can draw from these analyses and prevent a causal interpretation. (emphasis mine)

This brings us back to the WHO’s decision, which in theory is based on all the medical evidence, inclusive of INTERPHONE. The majority of the studies done, including one other large cohort study involving over 420,000 patients in Denmark, show no association of brain cancer with mobile phone use. A minority of studies have seemed to show an association, but their results are not strong, and the methods they used questionable. Overall, neither INTERPHONE itself nor the sum total of studies done to date makes a case for even a possible association of mobile phone use and brain cancer of any type from an evidence-based medicine perspective. There is no scientifically plausible way that radiofrequency electromagnetic fields can cause brain cancer that we know of, let alone protect against it, from a science-based medicine viewpoint.

I have previously stated that the WHO does not do science. Yes, they count scientists among their number, and yes, they are involved in scientific research – the WHO’s IARC was a big part of the INTERPHONE study, for example. That noted, their primary mission, i.e. the thing that they do, is to shape international health policy and procedures. Said policies should be based on rational appraisal of scientific evidence, and that is why I am incredibly disappointed in last week’s announcement and the use of an incorrect, wrongly reported “shock statistic” in their press release. It may be that they have considered unpublished data in their review, that the public does not yet have access to. If so, however, this would constitute an example of the loathsome practice of “science by press conference”, in order to appeal in a dramatic way to the public and the media.

As such, the WHO’s classification of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as being a Grade 2B possible human carcinogen is not a mere scientific statement, but one of public health policy with far reaching implications. These include for individuals, whom the WHO is counseling to use hands-free alternatives to standard phone use, as well as economic ones for the mobile phone industry and the stock market. All of this would be fine if there was credible evidence of even the possibility of a correlation, but there is not, at least in the public domain. If there is credible evidence, then it is both confusing and concerning that it was not published prior to the WHO engaging the media with a press release. It will be interesting to see what the WHO’s thought process and evidence base was for this decision once their article in The Lancet Oncology comes to press.

Reference: The INTERPHONE Study Group. Int. J. Epidemiol. (2010) 39 (3): 675-694. doi:10.1093/ije/dyq079 (2010).

1. The United States being notably absent. [↩]
2. The most common type of brain tumor – malignant and rarely curable. [↩]
3. The second most common type of brain tumor – usually benign, and with a high cure rate. [↩]
4. Similar age, sex, and region of residence, among others. [↩]
5. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. [↩]

The Commandant of our Air Forces has already waxed poetic on the wonders of Balticon; for me to do so would only be gilding the lily, and I have firm beliefs about the dangers of overgilding anything, let alone lilies. Therefore, I’ll say that I had a wonderful time, delighted in meeting with old friends and new, and cannot wait until next year.

Since I have not been to a new-media-centric convention in almost five years, I am woefully behind times when it comes to my podcast listening. What follows is a list of audio treasures I’ve picked up, listened to, and would happily force upon you, my most loyal of minions.

• Living Proof Brew Cast: John Taylor Williams and Thomas “cmdln” Gideon host this semi-monthly show focusing on what they call the Beer Quest; a combination of their own exploits in homebrewing beer, seeking our new and exotic beers/ciders which they taste and discuss on air, and interviews with anyone with a love of fermented liquid. Their most recent episode features a cider tasting with Nathan Lowell, author of the beloved Solar Clipper novels. This Overlord has had the honor of brewing and tasting with these gentlemen, and if you like beer and/or homebrewing, this is a must-listen.
• Antigone’s Wrath: One of the people I most enjoyed meeting was the talented Starla Huchton, author of The Dreamer’s Thread, a 2010 Parsec-award finalist. She launched her new work, Antigone’s Wrath as a live full cast recording at Balticon. Antigone’s Wrath is the tale of Captain Rachel Sterling who finds herself in a deadly situation when a strange ring finds its way into her possession. The Brotherhood is hot on her trail and the carefree life she once knew is lost in a maze of deception and high adventure. The audio and video of the first chapter has been released; I believe that this book will be one to keep up with over the summer.
• Talking On My Morning Walk: When David and I arrived at Balticon, our first stop was to join Nathan Lowell for breakfast at Panera. It was a first for both of us; neither had met the man who delighted us for so many hours with his words. Sitting and talking with him was a real treat, and I developed a real fondness for the man. Since abducting him would likely impede the progress of future books, I decided to subscribe to his personal podcast, Talking On My Morning Walk. It is exactly what it sounds like; Nathan discussing whatever is on his mind as he takes his morning constitutional. He’s is refreshingly honest and uncensored, and it’s like have Mr. Lowell in my pocket. Which isn’t nearly as creepy as it sounds.
• Ditched By Kate: It’s not a podcast: it’s a band, and a damn fine one. There are people in this band that you might of hear of, such as front man Phil Rossi (author of one or two or three Podiobooks) and Chooch Schubert (host of one or two podcasts). They were outstanding to hear live, and that’s not just the scotch that the Bad Doctor and I were imbibing speaking. I purchased their five-song EP and am craving more oroginal work from these folks. I should also note that their fiddler is smokin’ hot, and believe me, I know a little thing or two about smokin’ hot fiddlers.

And there you have it, a small smattering of earcandy schlepped to you from Balticon 45. This is by no means a definitive list: try searching the #balticon hashtag on Twitter for more fun and games.

CC BY 2.0 image by epSos.de via Flickr

Yesterday, the World Health Organization caused more than a bit of a stir by declaring that mobile phones are a possible cause of cancer. My own reaction was one of pained disappointment at the news. Whenever any organization makes an announcement like this that is based on dubious medical evidence, especially when filtered through a credulous media to a public that may not be grounded in the basic facts, it causes unnecessary worry that can be a challenge for physicians and scientists to deal with.

Let’s take a closer look at the announcement itself, what it’s based on, and what it means.

Who said it? – The declaration came from the International Agency for Research on Cancer, which is a component of the World Health Organization. This seems to represent the final word from the WHO on the matter, as there is no “higher up” body in the organization that needs to approve or finalize this decision.

What did they say? – The WHO/IARC put out a press release dated May 31, 2011 that classifies radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as being possibly carcinogenic to humans. This was based on the conclusions of a working group of 31 scientists from 14 countries that met to review and discuss the studies involved. The declaration seems to apply to all such energy fields, although the studies they considered were those looking specifically at wireless phone use. They concluded, as one might expect, that more studies are needed in the future, and made the suggestion that people should make use of “hands-free devices or texting”.

What does that mean? – The IARC categorizes agents and exposures into several categories, based on their level of carcinogenic risk. These are:

• Group 1: carcinogenic to humans
• Group 2A: probably carcinogenic to humans
• Group 2B: possibly carcinogenic to humans
• Group 3: not classifiable as to carcinogenicity in humans
• Group 4: probably not carcinogenic to humans

Radiofrequency electromagnetic fields are now classified in group 2B. For the sake of some odd context, other common things classified in group 2B as having possible carcinogenic risk include:

• coffee
• pickled vegetables
• zidovudine (a medication to treat HIV infection)
• metronidazole (a commonly used antibiotic)
• lead
• phenytoin (an older but still frequently used medication for seizures)
• carpentry and dry cleaning (as occupational hazards)
• progestins (a hormone used for many things, including oral contraception)

This is an interesting partial list to me, as it contains exposures that as a physician, I would rarely, if ever, take into consideration when counseling someone about diet or a particular medicine. In the case of the medications above, the associations are just so weak or rare that it doesn’t enter into my decision making process for using them in treatment. That’s why I find the WHO’s suggestion to avoid standard phone use to be strange – based on the level of evidence and classification, this seems to be quite a conservative, if not mostly fear-based, comment.

What do the studies say? – This post contains an excellent summary of the studies involved. Suffice it to say that most do not demonstrate any increased cancer risk with mobile phone use. Those that seem to show some risk are in the minority, most of which come from a single research group, which could indicate a persistent methodologically flaw or bias on their part.

The press release notes that one study found a 40% increase in gliomas (a specific type of brain cancer) in what they called the highest category of heavy mobile phone users, namely those who were on the phone for 30 minutes a day for 10 years. This seems impressive, and is the only hard data point in the press release, which they did not give a citation for. I tracked this down to be from a study last year called INTERPHONE, which overall showed no increased cancer risk; the 40% figure is taken from a subgroup analysis, meaning that statistics were done on a small subset of people in the study, which is technique that significant conclusions should never be drawn from due to statistical vaguery. Presenting this single, cherry-picked piece of data in the press release strikes me as quite disingenuous on the part of it’s author(s).

Is it scientifically plausible? – Apart from the lack of study evidence for increased brain cancer risk, one must consider whether or not it is even scientifically plausible that the radiofrequency electromagnetic waves generated by a mobile phone could cause such a phenomenon. This seems to be a biological impossibility, based on what we know to date. The microwave radiation generated is extremely low in energy, even compared to everyday biological processes, and is unable to cause DNA damage. Any heat energy produced wouldn’t eclipse typical environmental exposures – a period of exposure to warm sunlight, or the typical circadian body temperature variations we experience during the course of a day – and so would have no physiological effect.

What do I think? – “Cancer” consists of a complex spectrum of disorders that are very different from each other, and have different triggers and mechanisms that go beyond mere DNA damage as an instigating factor. It is also possible that mobile phones may have some unelucidated long-term carcinogenic effect on the human brain. All that noted, the idea that radiofrequency electromagnetic waves can cause cancer is biologically implausible, and the vast majority of studies have demonstrated no correlation between phone use and cancer incidence. It is far more likely that natural variance in applying statistics to medical studies, or other non-phone related factors, could be at play in any positive results seen.

Conclusion – The WHO/IARC has promised a more detailed summary of their findings in the July 1 issue of The Lancet Oncology, and that the article in question will be available in a few days online ahead of print. Hopefully this will give a better insight into their interpretation of the data and their thought process. However, unless they reveal some sort of excellent previously unpublished data, which is spectacularly doubtful, I suspect I will remain boggled at their recommendation. It may be that their agenda in this declaration is to spur further study, to sate pressure from special interest groups, or merely a bad choice in an attempt to do the right thing for public health, and I hope to get some hint of that as well.

In any case, we can rest assured that the biggest medical risk from phone use is talking or texting while driving, and not phantom brain tumors – and that’s something we can easily do something about.