The Secret Lair

CC BY-NC-ND image by svale via Flickr

As January creeps forward from the holidays, The Lair is waking up, shaking off a bit of dust and fatigue, and getting back to the business of serving Overlord Miller’s mad genius. That means many things, but most of all, it means SCIENCE.

Science is not a “thing”, or a body of knowledge, but rather the process we subjective humans use to overcome our individual biases and make some objective decisions about the world around us. Doing our best to eliminate that subjective bias is key to both engaging in the scientific process and understanding the results of that process, and can be a challenging thing to do. Recently, physician Harriet Hall summed up three lessons she has learned about dealing with scientific studies that speak to this perfectly:

Roosters don’t make the sun come up – Also known as “correlation doesn’t equal causation”. Just because two things always seem to happen in sequence, or together, does not mean that one causes the other. While this should seem obvious, this is perhaps the greatest stumbling block for humans in terms of understanding why things happen in our world, as we are psychologically wired to interpret things that happen together as having a cause and effect relationship. Our minds do this as part of an excellent survival instinct that, sadly, doesn’t serve us well when we are engaged in higher thought than FIRE BURNS DON’T TOUCH FIRE.

Never believe one study – One key to the scientific process is that if a study shows a certain result, other people in other settings need to be able to do that same study and come to the same result to prove it’s objective validity. In science as in the whole of life, mistakes can be made and sometimes people lie. Even if a single study seems to be excellently designed, controlling for any problems and outside issues, it’s results should be viewed with some skepticism until they are reproduced or confirmed. This is something we often lose sight of in an era when new studies are often poorly reported in the popular media, or promoted by a press release.

When encountering a new or questionable claim, always try to find out who disagrees and why – This will often give one more insight into a new study result than just considering the result itself. Whether or not we realize it, all of us as people have an agenda in life, be it basic things like caring for our family or doing well at our chosen profession to protecting a financial interest or promoting a belief system. Does someone disagree with a claim because they stand to lose money or prestige if it’s true, or do they really have good data that said claim is wrong? This can sometimes be a challenging question to answer, but a very important one.

In the weeks ahead, we shall be delving into SCIENCE! As we do so, keep these principles it mind. Next time, I will answer a challenge from Overlord Miller and wade into the eternally popular and debated subject… of weight loss.

Image by @Doug88888 via Flickr

Statistic: A quantity calculated from data in a sample, which characterizes an important aspect in the sample.  In other words, a summary.

Warning: This series of articles is not about equations and formulas.  You will not find Greek letters here, except when we are mocking them in a light-hearted manner.  If you are looking for any of these things, close your browser window now and slowly back away.  No one will know – trust us.

It has been said by some that the origin of statistics lies in gambling.  A bored nobleman, tired of losing at dice and card games, sat down and tabulated the frequency at which various results came up when he rolled his dice.  He basically discovered what we all assume to be true today – that each face of a fair die (the six-sided kind that you see in board games, and every other sort of fair die – we will discuss them later) is equally likely to land face up.  Somewhere along the line, that same bored nobleman, or more likely, a different bored nobleman discovered something we don’t really take for granted – that each roll is independent – that is, what you just rolled has no bearing on what you will roll next.  But at least he could predict the odds of that next roll.

Others tie the field of statistics to academic or governmental driven definitions.  If you talk to an academician, they will tell you about the papers that inspired their work and you can trace through the bibliographies that papers that inspired that work and so on and so on until you reach “Paper Zero” which some people blame on the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal.  If on the other hand, you want to talk about practical application, some authors will point to the changing political climates of the 18th and 19th centuries, when it was no longer sufficient for a monarch to merely decree and it was so.  Instead, administration took the place of fiat and political bodies suddenly needed data on the people, on their economies, and on their worlds to make decisions.  Or perhaps, need is a strong word.  Fiat would have still worked, but data made the whole process more efficient and effective.  And more predictive.

Personally, I find it fairly egotistical to claim that statistics only started in the last few hundred years.  For a good chunk of human history, man has been trying to predict things.  The ‘ancient’ Mayans and Aztecs had a calendar that continue to predict events in our ‘modern’ world.  The various zodiacs and astrologies attempt to predict human behavior based on birth dates and times and other sundry details.  And it would seem those predictions are pretty good over all, because we as a species keep going back to them.  At the very least, they are providing a good summary of human behavior.

So, personally, I would argue that the concept of statistics, the desire to summarize and predict the world around us has been a part of human history since the beginning of human sentience.

Of course, then you have to ask about the Statistics they teach you in college and quote in the news and produce in business reports.  Certainly, those ‘statistics’ are newer in the sense that we are quantifying them in our own modern way.  We’ve assigned Greek letters to them and give people advanced degrees for specializing in them and have developed our own mythology around them (“lies, damn lies, and statistics”).  But in the end, they are trying to do the same thing – summarize the world and predict what happens next.

Of course, _those_ Statistics, the ones taught by dry professors to large lecture halls that require you to learn a new language, those Statistics are based on what we could do with only a pencil and paper.  And to a math guy, they’re pretty cool.  But in reality, the number of people who work out those problems, the ones that can be worked out on paper and with pencil, those people are a rarer and rarer breed in this modern era of computing.  So they have become more widely available through computer programs, more widely accepted as an arcane art and a mystic language, and, I would argue, less well understood in terms of what they really mean.

So that’s what this series of articles is about.  It’s about what those statistics really mean, or what they are meant to mean.  It’s about their impact on our world and the impact they could have on our world.  And it’s about summarizing the world around you and predicting what’s going to happen next.  Good luck!

Like any man who wants to know what is going on in the world, I prefer to start my day with a cup of coffee and my morning paper.  Like any modern person who is well-versed in the ways of the Internet, I know that I can get better news, more timely, more interesting, more custom tailored to my needs by subscribing to a number of RSS feeds and social stream instead of subscribing to my local newspaper.  The hitch in the plan has always been the laptop…I dislike having the laptop and keyboard in front of me when reading.  The reason is purely psychological: as someone who spends all day in front of a traditional computer, I prefer that my off-time be a lap- and desk-top free as possible.

Until recently, this was an impossible dilemma. When I received a Samsung tablet at Google I/O last year, that changed.  It became possible to sit and read on my little Star Trek-like device and still pull the most current news from the web. Additionally, when I got my new iPhone, this became even more interesting.

Pulse

The program I use most often is Pulse. Pulse allows you to subscribe to suggested feeds, feeds aggregated by the Pulse service into several Top lists (top tech, top politics, etc) , your Google Reader feeds, or any RSS feed you can enter into their system. The design of the program is especially nice, articles from a source are arranged into horizontal bands with photos and their headline. Selecting an article allows you to read it, then flips across the page with your finger will move you to the next article. The motions and gestures are intuitive and simple. On top of this, Pulse allows share interesting articles to your social feeds with a touch of a button¹.  Reading the paper is a simple and pleasing experience, and when I’m done, I feel like I’ve got a better handle on my day.

When I picked up my iPhone, one of the programs I downloaded and use most often is Flipboard. Same idea as Pulse, aggregating personal, social, and featured feeds into a single interface, but Flipboard uses the form faction of the phone to great advantage. TO move between pages, you swipe up with your thumb or finger. The graphic animation is as if the page is folding up to reveal the next article in the queue. The main selling point, beyond the simplicity, is the use of excellent typography and brilliant images — the graphic design of program is stellar. It is the perfect companion when waiting in line or relaxing at the coffee shop of your choice.

How do you keep up with your favorite news? What programs would you recommend?

1. if you follow me on Twitter or Facebook, you’ve seen me sharing links first thing in the morning. [↩]

I am transmitting from a secret underground  location.

I have been instructed by Overlord Miller to inform you that I am here of my own free will and am able to leave in peace at any time I wish. At least I think that’s what he meant.

Since it appears we will be spending an extended amount of time together, it seems only polite that I introduce myself.

My name is David Wendt, though you may address me as Blue or Doc Blue. By training, I am a Ph.D. Statistician (thus the ‘Doc’ portion of my sobriquet). I am employed as a Marketing Research Consultant by day and as a free-lance game-designer by night.  I have a passion for pulp action and super-hero comic books. My brilliant wife and two (equally brilliant) children and I are in the process of converting yet another room in our home into a dedicated gaming space.

During the month of January, it is tradition among some peoples to make resolutions for the new year. For such individuals, the most frequent sort of promise is associated with self-improvement – loose weight, get a new job, paint the house.

Fortunately, for both you and I, I am not the sort to make such a resolution. Instead, I pose a challenge to myself – one that I encourage you in which to participate. I wish to read 12 magazine issues this year. But not any 12 magazine issues – where would be the challenge in that?!? No. I want to be exposed to 12 magazines that I have never read before. And that is where you come in: I would deeply appreciate your suggestions. Make suggestions. Challenge me. I only ask two things: (1) it should be a magazine that I can leave laying about my home reasonably comfortable (i.e. no “adult magazines” as there are kids in the house) and (2) I would strongly prefer magazines I can get off the new stand. I have a Barnes and Nobles nearby.

Why would I want to do such a thing?

(1) I believe in encouraging an open mind. It is very easy to get caught in the same mental ruts and my hope is that by reading material from new writers on new topics I can avoid ruts of my own.

(2) I tend to draw connections from seemingly disconnected sources. So it is my belief that in both my day job and my chosen career I will be able to be more creative and effective by introducing myself to need ideas.

(3) It will give you and I something to talk about here in the Secret Lair each month. For the next twelve months, I will read a new magazine (hopefully recommended by one of you) and share my thoughts about what I discovered within. This will not be a review, as such, merely insights I gleaned and how I might apply them to other fields.

What else can you expect from me during my stay here in the Secret Lair? As I mentioned, I have a passion for games and comics and heroic figures. If I were you, I wouldn’t be surprised to see content about games I’m playing, things I’m writing, and perhaps the odd, exclusive to the Secret Lair, creative content.

No matter what anyone else tells you, I’m thrilled to be a part of the Secret Lair and am looking forward to the coming year!

[How was that Overlord Miller?]

CC BY-NC-SA image from tkelly7029 via Flickr

Firstly, let’s get the obvious out of the way: the world might, in fact, end in 2012. However, this will be far more likely due to a Crackpot Scheme and/or an Unfortunate Synergy devised by our own Minister Lynn that I was unable to stop in time, as opposed to any sort of Mayan prediction. In point of fact, the end of the Mayan calendar no more predicts the final days of the world than the end of our own calendar did three days ago, after which we flipped things ahead to the next year, much like the Mayan calendar will move on to a new age at it’s end.

It is worth noting that the origins of our own calendar have nothing to do with our present day beliefs, be they crazy (The Mayans predicted the end of the world this year! Yay! I mean, DOOM!) or otherwise, but rather the pragmatism of ancient Greece and Rome as well as the inspiration of older gods. The original Roman calendar had ten months, with March (or Marius, named for the Roman god of war Mars) being the first month of the new year – this was both due to it being the start of spring, as well as beginning of the military campaign season. This was followed by:

• April, or Aprilis, which may derive from the Latin aperire meaning “to open”, or from the Roman goddess Venus’s name in Greek, Aphrodite
• May, or Maius, attributed either to the Greek goddess of fertility Maia or the Latin maiores, meaning “elders”
• June, or Junius, possibly originating with the Roman goddess (and patroness of marriage) Juno, or the Latin iuniores, meaning “young people”
• Quintilis, named for the Latin for “fifth”
• Sextilis, from the Lation for “sixth”
• September, October, November, and December, all derived from the Latin for “seventh” through “tenth”

The approximately 60 days between December and March were not assigned to months until later Roman revisions added January (or Ianuarius, named for the Roman god Janus) and February (or Februarius, from the Latin februum meaning “purification”) as the first and second months. Subsequently, Quintilis was renamed July in honor of Julius Ceasar, and Sixtilis to August named after Augustus Ceasar.

The above summary of the origins of our current calendar nomenclature is a vast oversimplification, but even more complex is the historical cultural interplay the resulted in the names of our days of the week:

• Sunday, with multiple origins referencing the Sun
• Monday, derived from the Old English for “Moon day”
• Tuesday, originating from various European names for the Roman god of war Mars, such as the Old English name Tiw
• Wednesday, identified with the Germanic god Woden, who has been tied both to the Norse god Odin and the Roman god Mercury
• Thursday, named for one of many cultural identities of the Norse god of thunder, Thor
• Friday, tied to the nomenclature surrounding the Germanic love goddess Frijjō
• Saturday, for the Roman god Saturn

Pulling things back to the month we just entered, January includes other notable days, such as Christmas for Coptic and Eastern Orthodox Christians; Seijin No Hi, the Japanese day that celebrates Coming-of Age of the youth who are twenty years old; and Martin Luther King, Jr. day in the US. Additionally, January 23rd marks the Chinese New Year, which starts the year 4709, the year of the Dragon.

Go forth, enriched in knowledge, and know that a confusing host of gods and goddesses are watching over you as you work to make 2012 a splendid year! Leave the worrying about the end of the world to us here at The Lair, since we do have a good chance of (unintentionally, I swear) bringing it about.

I have no intention telling you what I want to accomplish this year.

I’m not listing any projects, any promises, any resolutions. I have them, sure, but I’m not telling you what they are.

We denizens of the Interwebs, we talk so very much. Talk is cheap.  Social networks are easy, full of sound and fury, amounting to very, very little in the end.

You will only hear about what I’m doing this year when it is complete.  Until then, it’s not worth talking about.

Another November has come and gone, and with it has again passed How Not To Grow A Beard Month. You may recall that this is the annual competition wherein participants do not shave, and document their progress in growing – in some cases, poorly – a beard, while soliciting donations to help it grow in thick and lush. These donations, sponsoring an iconic expression of manhood, are collected for a cause that helps to save an iconic expression of womanhood, namely breast cancer research.

The 2011 iteration of this saw the group of us raise an amazing $5,267.46, which eclipsed our optimistic goal of $5,000, and also welcome several new participants into the fold. As tends to happen every year, there was a large influx of donations on the final day, leading to an exciting finish. When midnight rolled around, it turned out that yours truly was sitting in the number one spot, and so HoNoToGroABeMo founder Bob Voegerl declared me the winner! However, it turns out that there was a delay in a final hefty contribution to last year’s winner, Pete DiLillo, so in the early morning hours of December 1 he accrued the most funds of all of us, and pushed us over the top in making our goal! I imagine his expression the next day to be something like he showed us with his Day 28 pic:

In the end, the true winners of this follicular competition were all of us who participated. It was an entertaining month for an excellent cause, and seeing us hit our donation goal was an awesome thing. Bob posted two recaps looking back on the experience, and as the HoNoToGroABeMo Crackling Virility Hedge Champion for 2011, I add my own humble thanks to all who donated.

That noted, it is time to bestow The Cmar Beard Awards for HoNoToGroABeMo 2011. As with last year’s awards, these have nothing to do with any donations received, and everything to do with the glorious pictography of lush face-manes:

• Best Beard Photo: This year saw a new bar raised for photographic excellence and composition, but there was only one picture the entire month that forced me to laugh out loud when I saw it. Additionally, it demonstrates in a very obvious way the principle of How Not To Grow A Beard. As such, the clear winner of the best photo this year is Kris Johnson for his Day 30 entry:



• Man Most Exemplifying How Not To Grow A Beard: In prior years, this has been a rather easy category to judge, but that turns out not to be the case. Prior hands-down winner Jeff Greiner’s jaw-thicket grew in rather thicker this year – perhaps practice does train a beard? – leaving the field a bit more open. After some deliberation, it was clear that newcomer Frederick Hurley showed us all how not growing a beard is done. Or not done, as the case might be, as shown in his final image:



• Best Time Lapse Photo Series: Creative photo composition is the order of the day in this competition, but this year only one person gave us uniformly consistent poses to show his mandibular sprouts from day to day. That man is newcomer Andrew Rothman! (Click through to view the slideshow.)
• Man Most Exemplifying How To Grow A Beard: As this competition broadens in terms of participants, we are adding some to the fold who are able to muster up incredibly dense facial carpets. This year, the mysterious Beard A. Nonymous blew us all away with his jungle-like final jaw result. Seriously, dude, that is vastly impressive:



• Best Use Of Non-Facially Generated Props: The ante was certainly upped in this category, but Pete DiLillo once again takes the prize for his colorful use all manner of headgear and weaponry. (click through for the slideshow)



• Daily Commitment To The Task: November is a busy month, and few find the time and the stamina to start on Day 1 and produce a post every day for all 30 days. Our founder, Bob, led the pack in this regard as he does each year, and finds himself co-accepting this award with Jeff Greiner, Jim Van Verth, and myself for 2011. Strong work, gentlemen!
• Best-Spun Beardy Yarns: Every participant strives to put down some good words with their hairy pictographs. This year saw a range of pithy comments, beard quotes, facial hair history, and inspirational tales, to name but a few. However, Jim Van Verth pulled out the clear and consistent win. He made every picture a clue to a certain board game or digital game, and then followed each up the next day with some fascinating history and insight into the game in question. Congratulations to Jim for spinning some beardy yarns with a gaming bent!
• Most Intriguing Contest In Follicular Bribery: Along with our mandibular shrubbery, anew phenomenon grew forth during this year’s contest, namely that several participants devised their own personal contests to bribe potential donors their way. Of all of these, Jeff Greiner’s was clearly the best. Not only did it require the most work, but it was a meta-contest that involved bribing all of us participants with Manly Points to bring our A-game and increase participation and donations. Excellent work, Jeff! Be sure to check out how the points played out.

Congratulations to all of the winners! To all the participants, it was a pleasure joining you once again in this endeavor, and to give recognition where recognition is due. To everyone else, I’ll merely note that only 314 days remain until HoNoToGroABeMo 2012, and this whole mad affair will start up again.

As the current, reigning, and defending HoNoToGroABeMo Crackling Virility Hedge Champion – even under contested circumstances from the #1 Contender to the Title, Pete – I think it only appropriate to provide some parting beardly thoughts from WWE professional wrestler and current (at the time of this posting) World Heavyweight Champion Bryan Danielson: